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Propensity or influence? During the past months we’ve had several discussions internally and with our customers about virality. Our experience clearly shows that not everything is viral in marketing. Churn virality varies in different networks and there are cases where churn is not viral at all. Product marketing is a more potential case, but it’s become clear that the viral spread totally depends on the attractiveness of the offering.

This week I attended a seminar on how to do marketing in Facebook. One of the success stories was the launch of a new IKEA store in Malmö – a campaign designed by ad agency Forsman & Bodenfors in Sweden (check IKEA Facebook showroom campaign ). They succeeded in creating an incredible viral spread by allowing people to tag IKEA items on the store manager’s profile page, and get the items for free. Obviously a compelling offer – but the point of the designers was that if you want things to spread – it’s all in the offering. Simple ideas usually work best. You are fighting for your customers’ time, to succeed you need to offer them something worthwhile, and your brand needs to be something they are willing to promote. How do you find such ideas? These guys advice was – gut feeling.

This basically means that you are working on a trial and error basis. It also means that finding so-called influencers in your network will not guarantee viral spread. Influence is always context related, and you need to find the first tier targets to get any results at all. That’s why we put so much emphasis on finding the people that have the highest propensity in each context. At the same time we find the ones with the highest influence on others. So, if your gut feeling was right and you have a killer offering, you’ll get both the high first tier pull rates and the virality. But if you cannot find even the first adopters for this particular offering – you’ll have no virality either. Simple.

The good news is that if your offering is relevant but not viral (and you will have lots of these), you need to find the customers with the highest propensity in each case. These revenue streams are what matter for your business and they directly affect your bottom line.

More than two thirds of the world’s mobile subscriptions are prepaid. Yet the marketing discussions mainly revolve around postpaid topics, and the problematics in how to know more about and reach the prepaid customers are left in the background.

Lately, Xtract has worked closely with several large prepaid focused operators on both churn and product marketing. Together, we have found critical issues that we have solved, for instance in churn definitions as part of the analytics process.

At the end of January, our Product Marketing Manager Mikko Röntynen will speak on these topics in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, at the IQPC event called Prepaid Mobile Summit 2010. His topic will be:

Driving the value of prepaid customers using Social Intelligence
· What is Social Intelligence and what can it reveal about your prepaid customers?
· Demographics prediction as a basis for targeting in marketing campaigns
· Finding right targets for effective customer retention, product up-sell and customer acquisition campaigning

Improved insight and targeting to prepaid customers is a key strategic focus for Xtract in 2010.

This year’s Customer Segmentation and Intelligence conference will focus on the development of actionable strategies for mobile operators’ main challenges – drive ARPU and minimise churn. As the recession bites and customers radically change their behaviour, how can you use your segmentation tools and strategies to establish what they really want and develop valuable propositions that meet their needs?

The conference will cover what data, tools and models operators should use to develop meaningful segmentation strategies at both the macro and micro levels.

Xtract’s VP of Product Management & Marketing, Sari Aapola will speak in the morning of Day Two of the Conference. These are some of the points her presentation will cover:

Engaging Consumer 2.0 – Understanding And Exploiting Social Intelligence In Operator Segmentation And Marketing

• Consumer 2.0 is in the driving seat – understanding how a paradigm shift in consumer behaviour is changing the rules of marketing
• Defining Social Intelligence and determining how it can be used to tackle the most burning business challenges of churn and product up- / cross-selling
• Identifying the deliverables of Social Intelligence today and establishing how it can be integrated into the operator’s marketing processes and systems
• Where is Social Intelligence going next?

UTalkMarketing featured an article by Jouko Ahvenainen of Xtract. In this article, Ahvenainen looks at word of mouth marketing in a pragmatic manner. Here is a quick peek with some of the requirements for starting a positive word-of-mouth effect:

• Identifying who within the social ecosystem of your customers is influential. In this way, any company can consider its customer base as a social network; we aren’t talking just about Facebook users

• Targeting these influential people (what can be called ‘Alphas’) with campaigns that are most relevant to them, which they are likely to want to share with their network

• Making real-time marketing decisions based upon actual data and the way it’s analysed.

A full version of the article can be found from: UTalkMarketing

An Alpha is similar to a champion or an influencer. Nevertheless, in addition to having high influence and links in the community, the Alpha also has high probability to buy some of your products, acquire more customers or churn away. So, there are different kinds of Alphas and today I want to tell you how we find the Acquisition Alphas.

For Customer Acquisition, we use highly advanced analytics software that can process billions of data points. This powerful software is highly accurate. We find exactly those subscribers that have the highest potential to recruit new ones from another network. We take into account their influence level and number of off-net (out of your network) friends.

The illustration shows subscribers that have high or low influence and that might have off-net friends. Xtract identifies that the subscriber with the green circle has off-net friends (the ones in yellow) as well as high recruiting influence. This means that she would be the best target for your member-get-member campaign.

Finding the Alphas in your customer base is like finding gold in a goldmine. Remember! You need your Alphas and you need to treat them well.

We have a brand new white paper online on the topic Brands need People and People need Brands: How social analytics benefit consumers while protecting their privacy.

Using new social tools, consumers can decide, what information they want to reveal to the advertisers and what to keep private. For marketers and advertisers, this is a unique opportunity. They can concentrate on promoting their products and services to those who have already shown interest to them.

In the white paper, we analyze ways of making marketing relevant and useful for the end users. This can be done by targeting the Alpha users, the most influential persons in a social network.

We list six topics to consider when planning social analytics:

1. Provide simple opt-out
2. Inform users on data usage
3. Protect customer information
4. Respect industry guidelines
5. Let users control their privacy
6. Advertise to youth with care

The white paper also presents, how mobile operators can use Xtract Social Links to find effectively the targets for marketing campaigns. The Product Marketing Module for Xtract Social Links can bring this power to targeting specific products effectively to the influential users.

Did you find the white paper useful? Was there something missing? All feedback is welcome!

Download the white paper here.

Today, we are very excited since we are launching our first competition: Xtract Scenario Competition.

If you could see the social connections between your website visitors and find out who are the most influential ones – how could you utilise the knowledge to your business benefit?

Submit a presentation describing how you would utilise insight about your most influential users and the way your user base is networked, for example to improve your online marketing and advertising campaigns.

This is one of a twin pair competition, the other one being a closed competition for certain art schools around the world (opening October 22nd, 2008). We hope that these competitions will give some insight for both the online and mobile communities into the art of social networks and advertising in real social networks.

Any one with good ideas are invited to participate to the scenario competition, as it aims at being a vast brainstorm of scenarios of how to utilise the real social network of web sites.

The first prize is the Wacom Cintiq 12WX, read more on the competition website.

We have a new white paper online on the topic Social Advertising Intelligence: How to reach consumers with active advertising.

Customers are increasingly moving from mass broadcast media to social media, making current advertising processes less effective than before. Until now, the tools for planning and buying online and mobile advertising have been lacking.

In the white paper, we analyze the four main challenges that advertisers face with online and mobile advertising, that is:

1. Measuring the full impact of the ads
2. Lack of tools
3. Ads cannot be bought in a unified way
4. Lack of information on online users

The white paper also presents, how Xtract Social Advertising Intelligence can be used to target campaigns effectively, solving some of the challenges with multi-channel advertising.

Did you find the white paper useful? Was there something missing? All feedback is welcome!

Around one month ago I moved from the research team here at Xtract to marketing. This change is an interesting one, since often people consider research and marketing to be opposites: marketing deals with presenting concepts to customers in a concrete fashion as quickly as possible, while researchers work on abstract concepts which might take years to develop into something useful.

What is surprising is that marketing and research are in many ways quite similar and even many of the skills required are the same: in both jobs, one needs to be able to innovate, present ideas effectively and communicate by writing. Also, in both jobs one has to have a vision on where the business is moving and how we can help our customers with our tools and skills.

Now I just need to get some grasp of the marketing speak, which is quite different from the technical jargon I am more familiar with. Instead of “mixture models”, “bayesian inference” and “functional programming”, I now need to be able to talk fluently about “permission marketing”, “value propositions” and “behavior targeting”. In a way, this is like learning a new languge.

Tomi Ahonen has really an interesting post in Communities Dominate Brands blog. I agree very much with him. Anyway, I would like to emphasize that these digital identities work also on profile levels, so that you don’t have to know individuals or their phone numbers, but you can know customer profiles and then link or predict to which profile each individual belongs to. And this we have implemented many times.