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Propensity or influence? During the past months we’ve had several discussions internally and with our customers about virality. Our experience clearly shows that not everything is viral in marketing. Churn virality varies in different networks and there are cases where churn is not viral at all. Product marketing is a more potential case, but it’s become clear that the viral spread totally depends on the attractiveness of the offering.

This week I attended a seminar on how to do marketing in Facebook. One of the success stories was the launch of a new IKEA store in Malmö – a campaign designed by ad agency Forsman & Bodenfors in Sweden (check IKEA Facebook showroom campaign ). They succeeded in creating an incredible viral spread by allowing people to tag IKEA items on the store manager’s profile page, and get the items for free. Obviously a compelling offer – but the point of the designers was that if you want things to spread – it’s all in the offering. Simple ideas usually work best. You are fighting for your customers’ time, to succeed you need to offer them something worthwhile, and your brand needs to be something they are willing to promote. How do you find such ideas? These guys advice was – gut feeling.

This basically means that you are working on a trial and error basis. It also means that finding so-called influencers in your network will not guarantee viral spread. Influence is always context related, and you need to find the first tier targets to get any results at all. That’s why we put so much emphasis on finding the people that have the highest propensity in each context. At the same time we find the ones with the highest influence on others. So, if your gut feeling was right and you have a killer offering, you’ll get both the high first tier pull rates and the virality. But if you cannot find even the first adopters for this particular offering – you’ll have no virality either. Simple.

The good news is that if your offering is relevant but not viral (and you will have lots of these), you need to find the customers with the highest propensity in each case. These revenue streams are what matter for your business and they directly affect your bottom line.

UTalkMarketing featured an article by Jouko Ahvenainen of Xtract. In this article, Ahvenainen looks at word of mouth marketing in a pragmatic manner. Here is a quick peek with some of the requirements for starting a positive word-of-mouth effect:

• Identifying who within the social ecosystem of your customers is influential. In this way, any company can consider its customer base as a social network; we aren’t talking just about Facebook users

• Targeting these influential people (what can be called ‘Alphas’) with campaigns that are most relevant to them, which they are likely to want to share with their network

• Making real-time marketing decisions based upon actual data and the way it’s analysed.

A full version of the article can be found from: UTalkMarketing

Helsinki, Finland and London, England — 8 June 2009 – Xtract marketing director Arlinda Sipila will be chairing and speaking at the IIR Business & Telecoms Business Intelligence event this week in Amsterdam.

Today, Sipila will chair the pre-conference workshop, “Subscriber data – A goldmine of opportunity for mobile operator marketing.” The agenda for the session includes the following talks:

10.00 Subscriber social networks, social Influence and 3D customer profiling
10.30 Making it easy for the operator to utilise social intelligence for business
11.30 Monetising with social intelligence

In addition, on day two of the conference, Wednesday 10 June, Sipila will deliver a presentation titled “Social network intelligence: Utilising customer data effectively in marketing,” at 10:20am. The presentation will discuss topics including:

• The ‘active’ footprints that users leave behind in social media and how they can be analysed for improved, more individually relevant, marketing and advertising
• Mining the stories that customer data can tell an advertiser, and the sometimes-competing goal of maintaining user privacy

To schedule a one-to-one briefing with Xtract, or to obtain a copy of the presentations, please use the press contact details below.

About IIR Business Intelligence Conference
Held in the Hotel Okura, Amsterdam, Netherlands from Monday 8 June to Thursday 11 June, the conference will include speakers from companies including O2, Orange, Amdocs, Vodafone and Xtract. The programme will focus on practical strategies currently being deployed worldwide to optimise the planning, building and improvement of business intelligence.

About Xtract
Xtract (www.xtract.com) refines social interaction, behaviour and demographic data to create accurate 3D user profiles. These profiles for the first time utilise data as a dynamic tool in the day-to-day marketing for effective and intelligent targeting of campaigns and advertising. Xtract’s Social Links is an automated, self-learning solution capable of analysing billions of mobile transactions with easy to use and actionable tools for operators to define accurate target groups for their marketing campaigns.

Press contact
Emily McDaid
emily(at)hatch-pr.com

An Alpha is similar to a champion or an influencer. Nevertheless, in addition to having high influence and links in the community, the Alpha also has high probability to buy some of your products, acquire more customers or churn away. So, there are different kinds of Alphas and today I want to tell you how we find the Acquisition Alphas.

For Customer Acquisition, we use highly advanced analytics software that can process billions of data points. This powerful software is highly accurate. We find exactly those subscribers that have the highest potential to recruit new ones from another network. We take into account their influence level and number of off-net (out of your network) friends.

The illustration shows subscribers that have high or low influence and that might have off-net friends. Xtract identifies that the subscriber with the green circle has off-net friends (the ones in yellow) as well as high recruiting influence. This means that she would be the best target for your member-get-member campaign.

Finding the Alphas in your customer base is like finding gold in a goldmine. Remember! You need your Alphas and you need to treat them well.

Yesterday, the second floor of Molly Malones offered a nice and friendly environment for mobile people from all industries to connect with each others in the event organized by Mobile Monday (MoMo). The topic of the evening was Earning models in Mobile Entertainment, which is also an important question to many of our customers.

Our board member Alan Moore gave interesting insights into the big opportunity in utilizing the players with different roles in social networks. This topic is closely related to what we do here at Xtract for mobile operators and other customers.

Other speakers gave also fascinating presentations. Dr. Josef Noll from Norway spoke about privacy issues in entertainment business. He forecasted that privacy matters will be huge business in the future. Dr. Madanmohan Rao pointed out that in India, where Bollywood and cricket are the most popular forms of entertainment, the ones who will understand how to make money from mobile entertainment will earn a lot of money.

The place of yesterday’s event, Molly Malones in Helsinki, was also the place where the idea of MobileMonday was invented. The original founders of MoMo were present at the event and told about how no-one could believe at the beginning (Sep 2000) that eight years later MobileMonday events would be organized in tens of cities all over the world. It is exciting how a good concept, such as that of MobileMonday, has the power to spread all over the world, thanks to world-of-mouth and people networking with each other.

Yesterday was a long day. The long flight from Helsinki to San Francisco via Frankfurt wasn’t really enjoyable, but the OpenThread made up for that. OpenThread was an OpenSocial developer event organized by SocialMedia and held at their unique office in SF.

The event opened by overview of OpenSocial by Lane LiaBraaten from Google and continued with Paul Lindner from Hi5 giving an excellent hands-on tutorial on writing the first basic OpenSocial app. The crowd consisted of developers so the discussion frequently went to more into details. Somebody was asking Paul about a Hi5 specific problem where his app was having problems with the 5s time-out from Hi5. Paul was quick to reply that he can change it to 8s if that helps – how is that for supporting developers. OpenSocial is currently moving into v0.8 which is promising to give even more tools for developers to write rich and connected apps. One of the main ideas behind OpenSocial is to unify development across the different Social Networking sites. Currently the status seems to be “learn once, use everywhere.”

The following panel discussion revealed that the main problem currently in writing to a new container is to learn which viral channels to use and what and how the users like to use them. So it seems that OpenSocial is getting close to the goal. The discussion seem to concentrated also much around what kind of apps would be the top apps in years to come (are we still pinching and poking)? Some offered that it might be those apps that can be monetized – which still seems to be very difficult. A few claimed that they were profitable by using micropayments and many agreed that there is a difference between the different geographical areas when it comes to monetization.

In the end, I started thinking that as OpenSocial has persistence features and furthermore provides developers methods to make requests to their own servers through the container, it might be possible to write a full-fledged social network spanning over all existing OpenSocial sites. It would not matter where your users are originally logged in, they could still participate in your network. However, you would probably need to provide server capability and therefore the monetization comes to play an important part again.

The night ended with SUN sponsored OpenBar and some interesting discussions. Unfortunately I had to retire quite early after the long day. Overall, it was a good meeting, so if you have chance to visit future OpenSocial meet-ups, just go!

Yesterday we had the privilege to listen to Dr. Andrew J. Viterbi give an interesting presentation on the Science, Technology and Business of Digital Communications. He has been working in the middle of the mobile communications revolution and has left his mark in the field in many ways. Does the Viterbi algorithm sound familiar?

Dr. Viterbi is one of the Millennium Technology Prize Laureates for 2008. His lecture was a part of the Finalist Symposium that was held at the Helsinki University of Technology in Espoo, Finland. This year, the main Millennium Technology Prize, the largest technology prize in the world, was presented to Robert Langer from MIT for developing innovative biomaterials for controlled drug release.

The organizers of the symposium had also invited three promising Finnish companies to introduce themselves. All three companies combine science and technology with communication and are making solid business that aims “to someday repeat the success of Qualcomm”, as the organizers put it. One of these companies was Xtract and Jouko Ahvenainen gave the presentation that you can see below.

The presentation was about how to monetize digital communications and to deliver more relevant advertisements to end users at the same time guaranteeing more returns for the advertisers. In the audience was also Jason Pontin, Editor in Chief and Publisher of MIT Technology Review. He commented that our solution is the most complete solution he has seen for solving “the multi-billion dollar problem.” Afterwards we had some good conversations around the subject over some coffee and other refreshments.

Tomi Ahonen has really an interesting post in Communities Dominate Brands blog. I agree very much with him. Anyway, I would like to emphasize that these digital identities work also on profile levels, so that you don’t have to know individuals or their phone numbers, but you can know customer profiles and then link or predict to which profile each individual belongs to. And this we have implemented many times.

One interesting problem in social networks is to identify the various roles of people. Some people forward information between communities, others are the central players in communities and some are peripheral persons with only a small social network.

At Xtract, we have studied the roles in social networks for a long time. Our Alpha User concept is directly related to finding the central players in networks. During the years, also other network roles have been analyzed by us.

In the academics, there is also same interesting research being done on the topic of finding network roles. One interesting paper is Classes of complex networks defined by role-to-role connectivity profiles (pdf) by Roger Guimerà et al. They separate the roles in networks into six groups.

Another interesting paper with quite similar aims is Node Roles and Community Structure in Networks (pdf) by Jerry Scripps et al. They have given descriptive names to the different types of people found in social networks. Big fish are the persons who have many friends but belong to only one community. Ambassadors have many friends and belong to multiple communities. Bridges connect communities and loners have only a few friends and participate in just one community.

The scientific work done on finding network roles provides both inspiration and directly applicable methods that can be used to help clients understand their social neighborhoods.

Blog was not invented in China, but it has been hugely popular in this country. Nowadays, almost everybody has a blog, presenting whatever he/she feels like to. Its users range from Nintendo DSL gamers to pop stars, and its hosts range from Windows Live Spaces to the Chinese native blog host www.bokee.com. And nonetheless, many of these hosts are reported to have attracted a large number of users.

This popularity can be probably attributed to the common Chinese character of being self-contained. Many Chinese prefer to keep their opinions to themselves rather than speaking out aloud. However, they do have a desire to share their experiences and knowledge, if the communications channel is right. Blogs are clearly one of those. Very often, the Chinese simply exchange their blog addresses, and then, when sitting back at home, they talk to each other over the blog. Blogs have obviously facilitated information flow and the construction of social networks in this country and particularly among the youth.
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